No magic bullet

One of the Republican claims is The Stimulus Obama signed failed.

How do they know? What proof do they have?

We only know what The Stimulus did. Anything else is guess work.

There is no guaranteed winning solution to the economy. Even in hindsight you can’t say with any certainty what The Stimulus did. Whether it succeeded or failed. We only know where the economy was and where it is. We cannot attribute with any certainty what the Stimulus’ role was in that outcome.

Failed? No. For all anyone knows, it could have been a spectacular success. It could have prevented us from sliding into an economic depression of global proportions. Maybe it saved us from 50% or more unemployment. Maybe thousands more companies would have gone out of business. Maybe it prevented an international economic crisis so devastating the world has never seen its like before. Maybe it prevented a worldwide total economic collapse that would have destroyed nations.

See, we just don’t know. We only have computer models and those are subject to the prejudices and pet theories of those inputting the data.

GIGO. Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Conservatives don’t have a better idea about the economy than the Liberals do. Only a different one.

There’s no guarantee that the Conservative Economic Plan would have done any better. For all any one know, it could just as easily done worse — horribly worse. Or it could have had –SURPRISE!– the exact same affect on the economy.

No difference. None.

Because there is no magic economic bullet. No one infallible correct answer.

Economics is an inexact science at best with many contradictory theories. The Liberals don’t have the right answer. The Conservatives don’t have the right answer. Neither do Socialists, Capitalists, or any other ist.

There is no right answer. It’s like my economics professor always said, “You pays your money and you takes your chances.” Meaning, there are no guarantees.

So next time you hear someone say, “The Obama Stimulus failed.” Or “Romney is going to create 12 million new jobs.” Or anything that sounds like they have the guaranteed answer, call bullshit on it. Ask them to prove it. Have them show you cold hard facts to back up their talk.

Do you know what will happen? Nothing. Because they can’t prove it and they know it. Or they’ll try to baffle you with nonsense.

So take statements about how they will fix the economy with a grain of salt because they don’t know. Even Clinton, who actually produced a surplus that was promptly used up by Bush, didn’t really know how he did it. That’s why he said “Arithmetic.” If it really was that easy, that elementary, wouldn’t every administration do it?

No. Clinton was lucky. He was in the right place at the right time and signed the right papers and the planets were aligned just right.

The mantra for this election is “It’s the economy, stupid” when it should actually be “Its stupid to vote based on the economy.” Because voting for a candidate based on the mistaken belief that he has the answer to turn the economy around is just as silly as choosing a World Series champion based on the color of their uniforms. It has no basis in reality.

But ultimately, it doesn’t matter how you base your decision on voting, it only matters that you do vote.

So vote November 6th and may the best man win.



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